洋山港大风浪天气条件下引航风险与经济效益分析

    Risks associated with piloting at Yangshan port in heavy weather and the expectation of economic benefits

    • 摘要: 为科学准确地对大风浪天气条件下的集装箱船舶引航进行风险评价,基于洋山港的实际,并查阅大量文献后,识别出大风浪天气、周边船舶交通流、航道及潮流特征和大型集装箱船舶特性等4项风险因素。采用定量与定性相结合的方法对洋山港集装箱船舶引航风险进行评估。定量分析表明“影响一般”的比例最大,为49%,而“影响较大”的比例为30%;定性分析表明船舶交通流复杂性对洋山港集装箱船舶引航/助航模式影响最大。采用经济效益模型对大风浪天气条件下洋山港集装箱船舶引航模式的经济效益进行直接、间接分析,发现现行引航模式下一次大风浪作业可产生经济效益254 919美元。该研究有助于在大风浪天气条件下提升大型集装箱船舶安全进出洋山港的能力,促进洋山港的生产作业稳定高效发展。

       

      Abstract: Four factors, weather condition, traffic in the area, waterway conditions and the performance of the large container ship, are identified as 4 influencing factors of the risk which piloting at Yangshan port. The qualitative and quantitative methods are jointly used to perform the risk analysis. The qualitative analysis indicates that the complicity of the traffic flow in Yangshan port area is the most important factor influencing the navigation mode(being piloted or Navigating by itself with aides) of the container ships. And the quantitative analysis further reveal that the influence is moderate for 49% of the ships and significant for 30% of them. The economic model for piloting in heavy weather in the area is built to estimate the direct and indirect economic benefits of the business. The analysis shows that a single voyage can bring in about 254 919 dollars.

       

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