基于元胞自动机的内河顺直航段交通流建模与仿真研究
Research on modeling and simulation of vessel traffic flow in straight segment of inland waterway based on cellular automaton
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摘要: 内河航运作为连接国内外市场的纽带对支撑国内国际双循环起着非常重要的作用,而内河可航水域有限,且随着运输需求的增加及对水上交通服务要求的提高,内河船舶交通安全和效率问题受到越来越多关注。有必要深入探究内河交通流的规律和特性,对交通效率与安全、航道通过能力等开展研究,而交通流仿真是重要的方法之一。通过对内河船舶航行行为特征进行调研和分析,在元胞自动机模型的基础上,考虑顺直航段中船舶的汇入、驶出等船舶微观行为,制定针对不同船舶微观行为的演化规则,建立适用于内河顺直航道的交通流仿真模型,并以长江航道中部分顺直航段为例开展仿真模拟试验。结果表明:该模型可较好地模拟船舶在航道中微观行为,且模拟得到的交通流特征与实际相符。研究成果可为长江航道交通流分析、水上交通监管、航道规划和交通流预测等提供理论和技术支持。Abstract: Inland river navigation plays an important role in supporting the domestic and international dual circulation by connecting international and domestic markets. However, the navigable channels of inland waterways are limited. With the increased demand for inland vessel traffic and higher requirements for vessel traffic services, attention is increasingly being paid to the safety and efficiency of inland vessel traffic. It is necessary to rigorously explore the regularity and characteristics of inland vessel traffic flow and conduct research into traffic efficiency, safety and available channel capacity. Traffic flow simulation is one of the key methods employed in this type of research. By investigating and analysing the navigation behaviour characteristics of inland vessels, a cellular automata-based model of vessel traffic flow in inland waterways is established, and a simulation experiment is carried out based on a straight segment of the Yangtze River. The simulation results demonstrate that the model can accurately predict vessel behaviour, such as overtaking, entering and leaving waterways. The simulated traffic flow characteristics in trajectory simulations and spatial-temporal diagrams align closely with the actual situation. These results can provide theoretical and technical support for analysing inland waterway traffic flow, supervising vessel traffic, planning waterways, and forecasting traffic flow.