基于班轮运输特点的中欧间北极航线集装箱运输的可行性研究
Feasibility Study on Container Transporting Between China and Europe through Arctic Route,Features of Liner Shipping Emphasized
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摘要: 为探讨随北极航道通航能力的变化,中欧之间集装箱班轮运输使用北极航线的经济性,以未来20年为时间单元,基于港口间集装箱OD流量构建轴辐式班轮运输网络优化模型,计算采用单船队和双船队组合使用北极航线和苏伊士航线时的运输成本,并与BAU模式进行比较。结果表明目前乃至未来一个较长时期,使用北极航线组织中欧间的集装箱班轮运输都是不经济的,只有当中欧之间的集装箱运输需求减少到当前的60%时,北极航道对集装箱班轮运输才是可行的。Abstract: The study focuses on the economy of the China-Europe Arctic Route in terms of container transport. The optimization model for the hub-and-spike liner transport network is developed according to the origin-destination volume among ports on 20-year basis. The costs of container transport through the Artic Route with single fleet-double fleet combination mode are calculated and compared with that sailing Suez Route. BAUmarine mode is also compared. The research finds that for present and quite a long time to come, the Arctic route is and will not be economy for China-Europe container liners unless the container transport demand going down to 60% of current volume.