排放管控下班轮减排措施的选择和成本分析

    Choices of Emission Reduction of Liners in the Context of the Enforcement of Emission Regulations with Cost Analysis

    • 摘要: 在限硫背景下,对船舶减排措施的选择做了研究,首先,主要考虑能造成船舶使用各减排措施间成本差异的因素建立船队年成本模型,然后,通过优化航速和船队规模计算出使用各减排措施时的最小成本,进而比较选出具有成本优势的减排措施。之后,选用了四条航线上的班轮运输船队进行了实例分析。结果表明,对于四条航线上的班轮来说,在当前油价情况下选用加装脱硫塔更为经济。对减排成本做燃油价差的敏感度分析,分析结果显示,随着燃油价差的降低,燃油转换措施的成本会越来越小,且当降幅为45%时,对四条航线上的班轮来说减排措施二更具成本优势。当液化天然气的价格是重硫油价格的78%时,选用LNG动力船比加装脱硫塔更有优势。

       

      Abstract: The annual costs to a fleet are modeled under the condition of emission reduction measures introduced. The minimum costs with different emission reduction measures for optimized speed are calculated according to the scale of fleet. The measures with cost advantages are recommended. Liners running on four routes are investigated and the analysis shows that for current price of fuel oil, installation of the desulfurization tower is more acceptable in terms economy. The sensitivity of the costs of emission reduction measures to fuel oil price is analyzed. The analysis indicates that the cost of fuel conversion will go low as the price difference between alternative fuels and traditional fuels decreases. For the 4 liners, fuel conversion will become the best choice when the cost for doing it decreases by 40%. When LNG becomes 78% of high sulfur crude oil in price, converting to LNG will be a better choice than installing desulfurization tower.

       

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