基于DWT-LSTM的航道水位智能预测模型研究

    DWT-LSTM based Intelligent Water Level Prediction Model for Navigable Waters

    • 摘要: 航道水位信息是内河船舶安全通航、合理配载的决策依据之一。为揭示内河航道水位特征、提高短时预测精度,提出了一种基于小波分析(DWT)和长短时记忆(LSTM)的耦合神经网络模型,以汉口水位站为例,验证了模型有效性,并与传统BP神经网络、小波分析-BP神经网络和LSTM神经网络模型进行对比分析。研究结果表明:四类模型均可满足短时预测需求,合格率均大于90%;当航道水位变幅剧烈时,BP神经网络耦合模型误差较大;DWT-LSTM耦合神经网络模型性能较经典LSTM模型分别提升约10.9%(预测周期1-2天)、25.2%(预测周期3-5天)。研究成果可为船舶通航风险评估、航道条件分析等提供技术支撑。

       

      Abstract: A coupled neuro network model based on discrete wavelet transform and long short-term memory is introduced into the water level prediction. The model is verified with the data from The Hankou Hydrological Station. The models of typical BP neuro network, DWT-BP neuro network. LSTM neuro network are compared to the DWT-LSTM coupled neuro network model. It is found that the all of the 4 types of models can achieve the water level prediction as accurate as 90%, but for rapid change of water level, BP model gives obvious error. In such a case the DWT-LSTM coupled neuro network model is superior, 10.9%(1 or 2 days in advance) or 25.2%(4 or 5 days in advance) better than LSTM model.

       

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