我国沿海船舶事故特征及影响因素分析
Characteristics of Ship Accidents in Coastal Waters of China and Analysis on Influencing Factors
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摘要: 为深入探究我国沿海船舶的事故特征,以2000—2019年我国沿海海域船舶事故数据为基础,运用数据分析和挖掘技术,从事故船舶、事故严重程度和事故时空分布等方面对我国沿海船舶事故特征进行研究。运用离散选择模型对船舶事故影响因素进行识别研究,通过构建有序Logit模型对影响我国沿海船舶事故的严重程度有关因素进行识别,并在此基础上构建多项Logit模型分析并研究各个因素对不同船舶事故后果严重程度的具体影响。研究表明:影响船舶事故严重程度的核心要素共6类属性17种因素,事故类型是对事故后果影响程度最高的一类因素。Abstract: The data on ship accidents in coastal waters of China in the period of 2000—2019 are studied with data processing and mining technologies. The investigation focuses on space distribution of accidents at different serious levels for different ship types. The discrete choice model is used to identify the influencing factors for the accidents. A multinominal Logit model is constructed to study the particular effects of each factor on the consequences of an accident. 6 major factors in 17 groups that have significant influences on the consequences of an accident is identified. The factors in accident type group occupy the first place in terms of effect on consequences.