宁波舟山港船舶交通事故致因分析
Cause Analysis of Maritime Traffic Accidents in Ningbo Zhoushan Port
-
摘要: 中国港口吞吐量不断增长,港口船舶流量和通航密度也逐渐增大,航道风险也不断增加,因而对船舶交通事故致因进行研究。基于贝叶斯网络方法,选取浙江海事局辖区中发生的80起宁波舟山港船舶交通事故的调查报告,其中,70起用于模型的构建,10起用于模型的验证,分析得出宁波舟山港船舶交通事故的致因,推理船舶交通事故发生的致因链条,并提出减少事故发生的对策建议。结果表明:该研究成果对于船方和相关管理机构缓解船舶交通风险具有一定的参考意义;对于贝叶斯网络方法应用于其他类型的致因分析也有一定的借鉴意义。Abstract: While the throughput of Chinese Port is continuously increasing, the vessel traffic flow and density of vessels booming fast, the risk of waterway keeps risting, Therefore, research on the causes of ship traffic accidents. The research is based on 80 investigation reports on maritime accidents in Zhoushan Port, Ningbo. The accident model for analysis is constructed based on 70 of the 80 accidents and verified by studying the other 10 cases. The factors which cause accidents in the port is revealed and the causative chains that lead to accidents are identified. The measures to improve the safety in the port are recommended. This research is also an example of casual analysis application of Bayesian Network.