基于生成对抗网络的船舶航迹预测模型

    Ship Trajectory Prediction Model Based on Generative Adversarial Network with Attention and Interaction

    • 摘要: 为提高复杂交通局面下的船舶航迹预测精度,提出一种基于生成对抗网络的船舶航行轨迹预测模型(Generative Adversarial Networks with Attention and Interaction,GAN-AI)对多艘船舶轨迹同时进行预测。通过编码器对船舶轨迹时空序列进行编码,设计交互模块对多艘会遇船舶的相对位置和相对速度等信息进行抓取和分析,设计注意力模块将船舶自身运动信息和群体交互信息融合后输入解码器对轨迹进行预测。利用舟山港历史轨迹数据进行验证,试验结果表明:GAN-AI模型相较于Seq2seq、朴素GAN和Kalman预测模型分别提升了20%、24%和72%的预测精度,对提高船舶交通服务(Vessel Traffic Service,VTS)系统安全管理水平、判断船舶交通风险程度具有重要意义。

       

      Abstract: Ship trajectory prediction is essential for finding the risk of collision and planning collision avoidance maneuvering. The ship trajectory prediction model based on the GAN-AI(Generative Adversarial Networks with Attention and Interaction) can make the prediction more accurate in multi ship encountering situations. The time-space sequence of the ship trajectory is encoded by an encoder and the relative positions and speeds of target ships are acquired and analyzed by the “interaction module”. The “attention module” integrates the motion information of own ship and target ships and feed the information to a resolver which predicts the ship trajectory. The predictor is verified with historical ship trajectory data from Zhoushan port. Test results show that this design is more accurate than Seq2 seq, simple GAN, and Kalman model by 20%, 24%, 72%,respectively.

       

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