长江口及邻近水域船舶潜在碰撞事件特征

    Analysis of Potential Collision Events in Changjiang Estuary and Adjacent Areas

    • 摘要: 为降低长江口及其邻近海域的船舶碰撞风险,利用2019年10月的船舶自动识别系统(Automatic Information System,AIS)的数据,通过四元数船舶领域方法分析该区域船舶潜在碰撞事件中的非事故邻近事件(Non-Accident Critical Event,NACE),发现NACEs主要分布在吴淞口、南槽水道和宁波舟山港水域的空间分布特征。统计NACEs的航行要素分布特征,利用最近会遇点给出最紧迫的10% NACEs事件,其分布位置与碰撞事故发生点相一致。结果表明:该研究用数据驱动方法为改善海事安全管理效果提供新途径。

       

      Abstract: AIS(Automatic Information System) data in October, 2019 are analyzed with quaternion ship domain to find non-accident critical events. It indicates that this kind events mostly happened at Wusong Estuary, in the South Passage and in the area of Zhoushan port, Ningbo. Statistical analysis is performed on navigational factors related to those events to find their distribution characteristics. The Closest Point of Approach calculation is also performed to find most critical 10% of NACEs. The location distributions obtained from both methods agree with each other, which proves the effectiveness of the new method.

       

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