舟山江海联运服务中心船舶燃供潜在市场规模测算
Ship Fuel Supply Market Forecasting for Zhoushan Service Center of River-sea Coordinated Transport
-
摘要: 为科学合理地判断舟山发展国际船舶燃料油供应的潜在市场规模,应用航线成本对比分析模型将国际船舶燃料油供应的潜在市场细分为优势市场、竞争市场和劣势市场,利用船舶行为识别模型和停泊事件算法对船舶AIS数据进行分析,测算各类细分市场规模。研究结果表明,舟山发展国际船舶燃料油供应的优势市场、竞争市场的服务对象为挂靠或途径舟山港口且航线上不经过新加坡港的国际船舶,市场规模共计约1 187万吨,政府管理部门及相关企业在制定产业规划、配套政策及拓展市场时应重点针对此部分市场开展。Abstract: The potential foreign-ship-oriented fuel supply market is partitioned as advantageous, competitive and inferior according to the cost comparative analysis. The ship behavior model and ship berthing event algorithm is used to predict the sizes of the markets of different kinds based on ship AIS data. The research indicates that the advantageous and competitive markets are expected about 11.87 million tun altogether, assuming the ships navigating to Zhoushan port or via Zhoushan port having no plan to call on Singapore as the target customers.