Impact of Seno-US Trade Friction on Container Throughput of China Sea Ports

JIN Lianjie; SHEN Yihua; GAO Tianhang; YU Bin

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-4653.2022.01.013

Navigation of China > 2022 > 45(1): 73-78. > DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-4653.2022.01.013

JIN Lianjie, SHEN Yihua, GAO Tianhang, YU Bin. Impact of Seno-US Trade Friction on Container Throughput of China Sea Ports[J]. Navigation of China, 2022, 45(1): 73-78. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-4653.2022.01.013

Citation:

PDF (1188 KB)

Impact of Seno-US Trade Friction on Container Throughput of China Sea Ports

1. Transportation Engineering College, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026, China;
2. Transport Planning and Research Institute, Beijing 100028, China

More Information

Received Date: March 14, 2021
Available Online: June 13, 2024

Graphical Abstract

Abstract

Abstract

The impact of Sino-US trade friction on China sea ports are investigated according to the data from the trade database in China Customs.The data are divided into 7 categories.Generation coefficient calculation models for different categories are built after analyzing the additional tariffs list of US and improved with multiple factor dynamic generation coefficient.The Quantitative analysis of the impact is performed with the models.The analysis indicates that the commodity of total 250 billion US dollar for first round and second round tariff increase corresponds to 8 million TEU and 1.2-3 million TEU reduction is estimated.Actual data in the period of 2018-2019 proved the result.
- Sino-US trade friction,
- multiple factor dynamic generation coefficient,
- container throughput,
- Sino-US route,
- China sea port

FullText(HTML)

References (17)

References

[1]	TRUJILLO L, QUINET E, ESTACHE A.Forecasting the Demand for Privatized Transport:What Economic Regulators Should Know and Why[J].SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000,2446:1-21.
[2]	CHOU C C.A Mixed Fuzzy Expert System and Regression Model for Forecasting the Volume of International Trade Containers[J].International journal of innovative computing, information&control:IJICIC, 2010, 6(6):2449-2457.
[3]	ZONDAG B, BUCCI P, GÜTZKOW P, et al.Port Competition Modeling Including Maritime, Port, and Hinterland Characteristics[J].Maritime Policy&Management, 2010, 37(3):179-194.
[4]	RASHED Y, HILDE M, CHRISTA S, et al.A Combined Approach to Forecast Container Throughput Demand:Scenarios for the Hamburg-Le Havre Range of Ports[J].Transportation Research Part A:Policy and Practice, 2018, 117:127-141.
[5]	YU B, HAO M, JIANG Y, et al.A Hierarchic Framework for the Propagating Impacts of the China-U.S.Trade War on Volume of Chinese Containerized Exports[J].Journal of Industrial and Management Optimization, 2017, 13(5).
[6]	江舰,王海燕,杨赞.集装箱吞吐量及主要影响因素的计量经济分析[J].大连海事大学学报, 2007,33(1):83-86.
[7]	刘海燕.海关国际合作对上海集装箱运输的影响及启示[J].中国航海, 2009,32(2):93-97.
[8]	李旭,孟燕萍.碳税对集装箱海运网络运输成本的影响[J].上海海事大学学报, 2019,40(2):12-17.
[9]	齐越,沈益华,张民辉,等.宁波舟山港总体规划(2014-2030年)[R].北京:交通运输部规划研究院,2015.
[10]	冯云,靳廉洁.我国沿海港口集装箱运输发展趋势及增长机理研究[M].北京:人民交通出版社, 2018.
[11]	方然.珠江三角洲地区集装箱运输系统港口格局演变趋势分析[J].交通运输工程与信息, 2004(2):109-112.
[12]	靳廉洁,任静,张晓晴,等.长江沿线地区外贸集装箱港口运输需求预测[J].水运管理, 2017(8):8-10.
[13]	KRUGMAN P.Thinking about a trade war[N].New York Times, 2018-6-20.
[14]	包甜甜,余慧,杨忠振.贸易冲突对中国出口美国集装箱影响的区域性差异[J].中国航海,2020,43(2):105-111.
[15]	余振,周冰惠,谢旭斌,等.参与全球价值链重构与中美贸易摩擦[J].中国工业经济, 2018(7):24-42.
[16]	王霞.中美贸易摩擦对全球制造业格局的影响研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究, 2019(6):22-40.
[17]	孙瀚冰,靳廉洁.中美贸易冲突对我国沿海港口影响几何?[J].中国港口, 2018(7):5-8.

Cited By

Cited by

Periodical cited type(8)

1.	汪勋，周毅，李萌，蒙学昊，张海涛. 一种双向航道调度和泊位分配模型的构建. 天津科技. 2025(04): 39-42 .
2.	张琼. 中美贸易摩擦背景下我国中小型货代企业转型升级对策分析. 中外企业文化. 2024(05): 91-93 .
3.	李振福，崔万达，周玉涛. 中国沿海港口群港城协同发展的动态演进及差异. 地域研究与开发. 2024(06): 60-66 .
4.	徐杏，高天航，沈益华，于汛然，吴宏宇，耿志鑫. 新形势下我国港口集装箱运输系统优化研究. 水运工程. 2023(03): 6-11+16 .
5.	吕文超，陈培红，徐亮，闫伟，王欢. 船舶不锈钢在气液耦合流动中的腐蚀特性. 全面腐蚀控制. 2023(02): 109-115 .
6.	蒋冬卫. 不同地区沿海港口物流业发展现状评价分析. 中国水运. 2023(11): 74-76 .
7.	杨宇鸽，郝杨杨，王逸文. 基于NeuralProphet-LSTM组合模型的港口货物吞吐量预测. 中国航海. 2023(04): 85-92 . 本站查看
8.	蒋冬卫. 不同地区沿海港口物流业发展现状评价分析. 中国水运. 2023(21): 74-76 .

Other cited types(5)

Get Citation

PDF

XML

Article views (51) PDF downloads (7) Cited by(13)

Turn off MathJax

Article Contents

Abstract

References

Impact of Seno-US Trade Friction on Container Throughput of China Sea Ports

Abstract

References

Cited by

Periodical cited type(8)

Other cited types(5)

Catalog

Export File

Citation

Format

Content