A Model for Predicting Throughput of Container Port Group and Improving Decision-Making in Pricing Game

To inhibit internal vicious price competition within a container port group and improve the income of the group as a whole, a second order prediction game model is developed based on GM(1, 1) model, Logit model and Nash-Bertrand Model.The GM(1,1) model is improved with three point smoothing and used to predict future container throughput.Logit model is used to simulate the behavior of shipper in port selection.Nash-Bertrand Model is used to calculate the income of the port group for cooperative game and non-cooperative game respectively.The calculation shows that with presented method, the prediction accuracy improved 0.68% and the overall group income increased 52.3% and 35.5% for cooperative game and non-cooperative game respectively.